蒙特卡罗在项目融资风险评估中的应用

项目融资具有强大的筹资能力，在我国的应用具有广阔的前景。但项目融资也存在巨大的风险，需要对风险加以管理．风险评估是风险管理的重要步骤。本文通过介绍蒙特卡罗的基木概念、基本原理和工作程序，采用蒙特卡罗模拟与Matlab程序相结合的方法进行了项目融资风险定量评估，并结合实例对此方法予以说明。     

商品林产业化中的引资定位及风险分析

分析了我国商品林产业化中的引资定位及我国林业引资的比较优势,指出了我国商品林产业化中存在外资短期利益追逐、人工纯林多、项目贷款利率、利用国内资金和地区林业外资失调等风险,提出了制定优惠政策,积极引进先进林业技术,加大对先进技术的吸收,规范对外资投资的管理,出台林业贷款监控政策和鼓励林业间作种植的林业引资对策。     

原料基地的战略价值研究--期权定价模型的应用

在市场风险下 ,加工企业控制一定比例的原料供应 ,相当于购买了一种期权 ,这种期权对林工联合体有着不可忽视的战略价值 ,它可大大减少加工企业的市场风险暴露。本文应用期权定价模型对这种战略价值进行定量研究 ,敏感分析表明 :当木材市场价格水平、长期资本利率水平越高 ,木材价格波动率越大 ,加工企业拥有原料基地的战略价值越大。期权定价模型的应用为正确认识原料基地的战略价值 ,分析木材限额采伐政策等提供了良好的基础。     

把林火灾害问题纳入风险管理范畴的探讨

风险管理正在成为全球关注的新学科。森林火灾不可避免,灾害风险不容回避,把林火灾害纳入风险管理范畴,是预防、减少和控制森林火灾的重要手段和措施。文中阐明了林火灾害风险及风险管理的概念和含义,明确了风险判识、风险分析、风险评估和风险控制特别是风险评估的内容与方法。     

白龙江、洮河水源涵养林区云杉落针病危险性分析评估

云杉落针病是白龙江、洮河水源涵养林区最为严重的林木叶部病害。为加强对该病的管理,有效控制其危害和在白龙江、洮河水源涵养林区乃至整个西北地区进一步扩散蔓延,参照有害生物危险性分析(Pest Risk Analysis)方法,结合该区森林资源状况和病虫害发生发展情况,对云杉落针病在白龙江、洮河水源涵养林区的潜在风险性进行了分析和评价。结果表明:云杉落针病为中度危险且接近高度危险性病害。并提出了相应的风险管理策略。     

松阿扁叶蜂对四川岷江上游引进树种辐射松风险性分析和风险管理

用有害生物风险性评价的定量分析方法，对松阿扁叶蜂Acantholyda posticalis Matsumura在四川岷江上游干旱河谷辐射松Pinus radiata引种造林的风险性进行了分析。结果表明松阿扁叶蜂对辐射松危害程度强，造成的损失重，根除的难度大，是中度危险的潜在重大害虫，将对四川岷江上游干旱河谷地区辐射松大面积引种造林构成较大的威胁，应加强对辐射松引种造林模式和该害虫的虫情监测、生物防治技术进行研究。     

对森工企业实行债转股的认识

债转股是政府摆脱国有企业和银行双重困境的政策选择。但在目前经济和社会信用背景条件下，对国有森工企业实行债转股的作用不能高估，必须对债转股的理论依据和实践中可能遇到的问题进行深入分析。单纯寄厚望于债转股，是不能解决根本问题的。     

云南省黄胸木蠹蛾的危险性评估

黄胸木蠹蛾是多种阔叶树种的重要蛀干害虫。为正确认识云南省黄胸木蠹蛾对林木所造成危害的危险性,加强管理,有效地控制该虫的危害和防止其进一步扩散蔓延,采用有害生物危险性分析(Pest R isk Analysis)的方法,对黄胸木蠹蛾在云南省的危险性进行了系统的定性与定量分析。通过综合评估,认为黄胸木蠹蛾在云南省属于中度危险性的森林有害生物。     

外来有害生物红火蚁风险分析及防控对策

参照国内外有害生物风险分析方法，通过对外来有害生物红火蚁在我国的分布状况、潜在危害性、危害对象经济重要性、定殖和扩散的可能性和危险性管理难度的定性和定量分析，得出风险评估值R=1．861，表明该虫在我国属于中度危险的有害生物。必须通过检疫、监测等措施加强对红火蚁的监管，防止其扩散、危害。     

Wolves, elk, willows, and trophic cascades in the upper Gallatin Range of Southwestern Montana, USA

We summarized the status of wolves (Canis lupus), elk (Cervis elaphus), and woody browse conditions during the 20th century for the upper Gallatin elk winter range in southwestern Montana, USA. During this period, wolves were present until about the mid-1920s, absent for seven decades, and then returned to the basin in 1996. A chronosequence of photographs, historical reports, and studies indicated willows (Salix spp.) along streams became heavily browsed and eventually suppressed following the removal of wolves, apparently due to unimpeded browsing by elk. However, after wolf establishment in 1996, browsing intensity on willows lessened in some areas and we hypothesized that, at both a landscape and fine scale, browsing pressure reflects terrain configurations influencing predation risk (nonlethal effects), in conjunction with lower elk densities (lethal effects). We measured browsing intensity and heights of Booth willow (S. boothii) along 3000 m reaches of the Gallatin River and a tributary to examine the potential influence of wolf/elk interactions upon willow growth. Where the Gallatin Valley is relatively narrow (high predation risk), willows began releasing in 1999 and by 2002 were relatively tall (150–250 cm). In contrast, willow heights along a wider portion of the Gallatin Valley, along the open landscape of the tributary, and an upland site (all low predation risk) generally remained low (<80 cm). We identified terrain and other features that may contribute to the perceived risk of wolf predation, by elk for a given site. Although alternative mechanisms are discussed, changes in willow communities over time following wolf removal and their subsequent reintroduction were consistent with a top-down trophic cascade model involving nonlethal and possibly lethal effects. If similar top-down effects upon vegetation hold true in other regions of North America and other parts of the world where wolves have been extirpated, wolf recovery may represent a management option for helping to restore riparian plant communities and conserve biodiversity.